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Real Estate Marketing Statistics October 2019

Asking Prices up 9% Over Last Year, but are Buyers Paying It?
These Homes Have Appreciated the Most since 2000

For Buyers:

The news media is filled with short-term predictions regarding the economy and how it will, or will not, affect real estate prices.  It’s understandable for buyers to want their home to appreciate in value after they purchase, who doesn’t?  However there is far too much attention paid to short-term influences and fluctuations these days and not enough attention paid to the long view.  Real estate is a long-term investment for many people. 

Despite the euphoria of 2005-2007 and the nightmare of 2008-2011, on average homes are selling 81.6% higher today than they were in the year 2000.  That’s an average appreciation rate of 4.3% per year over the course of 19 years.  Smaller homes appreciated the most over time while larger homes appreciated the least.  Homes under 1,000sf have appreciated 122% since 2000, an average of 6.4% per year.  Those between 1,000-2,000sf appreciated 106%, an average of 5.6% per year.  2,000-3,000sf appreciated 68% at 3.6% per year.  3,000-4,000sf appreciated 49% at 2.6% per year and homes over 4,000sf appreciated 11% at 0.6% per year.

For Sellers:

Average asking prices per square foot are up 9% over this time last year and they’re continuing to rise. However, not one individual price range has risen 9% or more; confusing, right? That’s because the sharp increase in the average has more to do with a growing market share of luxury active listings over $500K as inventory has plummeted everywhere else. The highest increase is within $200K-$250K, where sellers are asking 5.6% more than they were last year.

That’s followed by listings over $1M where they’re asking 4.2% more and $500K-$1M at 4.0%.  All other price ranges are just 1-3% higher.  But are buyers paying?  Actually, many of them are! In the $200K-$250K range, the average sales price per square foot is still 0.8% higher than the average list price; and between $250-$300K the average sales price is 6.8% higher than the average list per square foot. Things change over $500K.  Between $500K-$1M there’s a -6.3% gap between asking price and sales price and over $1M the average sales price is -15.1% below the average asking price.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

Real Estate Marketing Statistics September 2019

New Listings Up 10% from July to August
Supply is Down 73% in this Area and Price Range

For Buyers:


A faint glimmer of good news for buyers, supply finally stopped declining and actually rose a tiny bit in the last week.  While active listings are still 16% lower than they were this time last year, they’re 1% higher than 4 weeks ago.  This rise can be attributed to a 10% increase in new listings from July to August, which is not uncommon as July is typically a low point in the year for new listings. 

However this August was 3% below last August in comparison and the lowest August since 2016.  One price range that is still declining in supply is $200K-$250K, which has plummeted 51% since February.  The Southeast Valley on the Maricopa County side has seen the largest decline of 73% in this price range for single family homes.  Gilbert is especially low with only 5 listings in the entire city under $250K as of September 9th, all of them townhomes with an average size of 1,116 square feet.

For Sellers:


For some sellers the idea of listing their home is stressful, even if it’s in great condition. The pressure of keeping their home clean for showings and open houses, enduring negative feedback, and the unknowns of the inspection report can send homeowners right into the arms of flip investors who will happily buy their home “as is” with significant fees attached. 

While there is nothing wrong with doing that (there is value in ease and certainty) sellers should understand that if their home lands within a frenzy price range for their area, where there are literally more homes under contract than there are for sale, they may be pleasantly surprised at how little they have to do to sell it on the MLS.  Negotiable listing costs, multiple contracts and buyers willing to buy “as is” make this the perfect market for sellers who know their home is not so perfect. To find out if your property lands in a frenzy zone, contact your local Realtor. You may also get in touch with companies like Millman National Services to help you with the necessary land survey or zoning when buying or selling a parcel of land.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

Real Estate Marketing Statistics August 2019

LOWEST Number of New Listings Posted in at Least 18 Years
Contracts in Escrow Up Over 15%!

For Buyers:

It’s slim pickings for buyers in Greater Phoenix these days unless your budget is over $500,000.  Overall supply is 14% lower than last August while contracts in escrow are 15.5% higher!  There are a plethora of zip codes considered “frenzies”, where there are literally more properties under contract than there are active for sale; all of them with an average sale price below $400,000.

 This is unusual for August, which is typically a much softer month. Buyers will have a slightly easier time in more expensive areas such as Central Phoenix, Ahwatukee, South Tempe and the Northeast Valley, but not much unless they’re willing to go further out or increase their budget.  Any projections of prices flattening out or coming down in Greater Phoenix this year have been obliterated.

For Sellers:

As supply plummets, fewer sellers are deciding to sell.  July was THE lowest month for brand new listings going all the way back to the year 2001.  That’s significant because the population today is 50% larger and the number of housing units is 63% higher than it was 18 years ago.  19% of all MLS sales and 26% of sales between $100K and $250K sold over asking price last July.  Coincidentally (or not), 32% of sales within that same price range still included some form of seller-paid closing cost assistance, while you can also contact marketing specialists from sites like https://thevisualcommunicationguy.com that will help sell different types of products. For social marketing, you can hire Facebook Ads Agency Newcastle.

Despite the frenzy market, the annual appreciation rate for Greater Phoenix is just 6.4% and sales between $225K-$500K are clocking 3.5-4.0% on average.  This may seem surprising given the widening gap between supply and demand; but appraisers remain conservative in their valuations and with at least 80% of buyers needing a loan, they’re riding the brakes on runaway appreciation thus far. On a different note, read this fun breakdown by Themarketingheaven.com on how much money the viral hit “Baby Shark” made on YouTube—it’s wild how digital value stacks up too.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here:

Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, 

Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

Real Estate Marketing Statistics July 2019

Contracts up 19% in this Price Range!
Flip Sales Rebounding Strong after Weak First Quarter

For Buyers:

New listings activated in June were down 10.0% compared to last June and overall supply has dropped 9.5% in 4 weeks, putting it below last year’s count for the first time all year.  Buyers have gotten used to very little supply under $200K but now they’re feeling it hard between $200K-$250K, where new listings were down a whopping 15.1%.  Trying to fill the gap, brand new town home/condo sales have been strongest between $200K-$250K with a median size of 1,362sf.  The top two builders that have sold the highest number of condos in this price range this year are Lennar in Gilbert and DR Horton in Mesa.  Other competing developers building multi-family between $200K-$250K include Bela Flor in Mesa and Maracay in Goodyear.  In Mesa, new condos in this price range have been extremely competitive with resale with an average price per square foot of $155.70 versus $157.47 for resale.

For Sellers:

Listings in escrow are up 7.4% and have soared nearly 19% over last year between $250K and $600K.  Homeowners with property valued under $250K are inundated with offers from investors as flip sales* have rebounded strongly over the past few months.  Making up for lost time after being down 4.2% in the first quarter, successful flip sales have now outperformed 2018 by 4.8%. The median sale price for a flipped home in May was $245K, up 8.4%, and the average size sold was 1,710sf.  The median gross gain for a traditional flip investor was $53K between their acquisition and sale price.  iBuyer companies such as OpenDoor, OfferPad and Zillow showed a median gross gain of just $9,900, however that doesn’t account for significant service charges to the sellers during escrow.

*A flip sale is defined in this case as the sale of property within 6 months of acquiring it.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here:

Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, 

Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

The Benefits of a 20% Down Payment

If you are in the market to buy a home this year, you may be confused about how much money you need to come up with for your down payment. Many people you talk to will tell you that you need to save 20% or you won’t be able to secure a mortgage.

The truth is that there are many programs available that let you put down as little as 3%. Those who have served our country could qualify for a Veterans Affairs Home Loan (VA) without needing a down payment.

These programs have cut the savings time that many families would need to compile a large down payment from five or more years down to a year or two. This allows them to start building family wealth sooner.

So then, why do so many people believe that they need a 20% down payment to buy a home? There has to be a reason! Today, we want to talk about four reasons why putting 20% down is a good plan, if you can afford it.

1. Your interest rate will be lower.

Putting down a 20% down payment vs. a 3-5% down payment shows your lender/bank that you are more financially stable, thus a good credit risk. The more confident your bank is in your credit score and your ability to pay your loan, the lower the rate they will be willing to give you.

2. You’ll end up paying less for your home.

The bigger your down payment, the lower your loan amount will be for your mortgage. If you are able to pay 20% of the cost of your new home at the start of the transaction, you will only pay interest on the remaining 80%. If you put down a 5% down payment, the extra 15% on your loan will accrue interest and end up costing you more in the long run!

3. Your offer will stand out in a competitive market!

In a market where many buyers are competing for the same home, sellers like to see offers come in with 20% or larger down payments. The seller gains the same confidence that the bank did above. You are seen as a stronger buyer whose financing is more likely to be approved. Therefore, the deal will be more likely to go through!

4. You won’t have to pay Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)

Simply put, PMI is “an insurance policy that protects the lender if you are unable to pay your mortgage. It’s a monthly fee, rolled into your mortgage payment, that is required for all conforming, conventional loans that have down payments less than 20%.”

As we mentioned earlier, when you put down less than 20% to buy a home, your lender/bank will see your loan as having more risk. PMI helps them recover their investment in you if you are unable to pay your loan. This insurance is not required if you are able to put down 20% or more.

Many times, home sellers looking to move up to a larger or more expensive home are able to take the equity they earn from the sale of their house to put down 20% on their next home.

If you are looking to buy your first home, you will have to weigh the benefits of saving a 20% down payment vs. the time and cost of continuing to rent while you save that amount.

Bottom Line

If your plan for your future includes buying a home and you’re already saving for your down payment, let’s get together to help you decide what down payment size best fits with your long-term plan!

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

4 Tips for Making a Competitive Offer in Today’s Market

So, you’ve been searching for that perfect house to call ‘home,’ and you’ve finally found it! The price is right, and in such a competitive market, you want to make sure you make a good offer so that you can guarantee that your dream of making this house yours comes true!

Below are 4 steps provided by Freddie Mac to help buyers make offers, along with some additional information for your consideration:

1. Determine Your Price

“You’ve found the perfect home and you’re ready to buy. Now what? Your real estate agent will be by your side, helping you determine an offer price that is fair.”

Based on your agent’s experience and key considerations (like similar homes recently sold in the same neighborhood or the condition of the house and what you can afford), your agent will help you to determine the offer that you are going to present.

Getting pre-approved will not only show home-sellers that you are serious about buying, but it will also allow you to make your offer with confidence because you’ll know that you have already been approved for a mortgage in that amount.

2. Submit an Offer

“Once you’ve determined your price, your agent will draw up an offer, or purchase agreement, to submit to the seller’s real estate agent. This offer will include the purchase price and terms and conditions of the purchase.”

Talk with your agent to find out if there are any ways in which you can make your offer stand out in this competitive market! A licensed real estate agent who is active in the neighborhoods you are considering will be instrumental in helping you put in a solid offer.

3. Negotiate the Offer

“Oftentimes, the seller will counter the offer, typically asking for a higher purchase price or to adjust the closing date. In these cases, the seller’s agent will submit a counteroffer to your agent, detailing their desired changes, at this time, you can either accept the offer or decide if you want to counter.

Each time changes are made through a counteroffer, you or the seller have the option to accept, reject or counter it again. The contract is considered final when both parties sign the written offer.”

If your offer is approved, Freddie Mac urges you to “always get an independent home inspection, so you know the true condition of the home.” If the inspector uncovers undisclosed problems or issues, you can discuss any repairs like drain cleaning service, electrical maintenance, ac repair, etc. that may need to be made with the seller or even cancel the contract altogether. For air conditioning repair and maintenance, one may consider getting help from a professional a/c service like Affordable Air Solutions or other services that do ac repair in Tampa, FL or ac repair in Lancaster, TX.

4. Act Fast

The inventory of homes listed for sale has remained well below the 6-month supply that is needed for a ‘normal’ market. Buyer demand has continued to outpace the supply of homes for sale, causing buyers to compete with each other for their dream homes.

Make sure that as soon as you decide that you want to make an offer, you work with your agent to present it as quickly as possible.

Bottom Line

Whether buying your first home or your fifth, having a local real estate professional who is an expert in his or her market on your side is your best bet in making sure the process goes smoothly. Let’s talk about how we can make your dream of homeownership a reality!

Real Estate Marketing Statistics June 2019

Monthly Sales Up 7.1% in Greater Phoenix

Higher Incomes in Greater Phoenix Fueling More Contracts and Rising Prices

For Buyers:
Re-sale prices are not predicted to come down this year.  Between August 2018 and January 2019 it looked like the market was going to balance out and cause prices to stabilize around the 2nd half of 2019.  However two things happened to change that prediction.  First, average 30-year mortgage rates dropped from a high of 4.94% in November 2018 to 3.82% as of June 2019.  That alone has saved buyers around $177/month on a median-priced $279,000 home with 4% down. 

Second, private sector annual earnings in Greater Phoenix rose 1.8% in April after an 8-month period of stagnation.  In the last decade home prices have gone flat just twice, in 2011 and 2014.  Both times there was a corresponding decline in annual earnings. If annual earnings continue to grow and interest rates remain low, the Greater Phoenix seller market will continue to push home prices up this year.

For Sellers:
The May peak buyer season is over.  From this point through the end of the year it’s not uncommon to see contract activity gradually decline 30-40%.  The good news is that despite the predictable decline, listings under contract are coming in 3.7% higher than this time last year.  It’s not evenly distributed along all price points however.  Contracts on listings over $600K are up 3.4% while the $500K-$600K range is up an impressive 33.5%!!

Contracts between $250K-$500K are up 16.1% and the low $200K’s are up 8.1%.  Lack of inventory under $200K means that contracts in this range are down 20.6%.  Expect your highest annual appreciation rates to be between 6-10% in the $150K-$225K range as this is where the majority of investor flip activity lies. $225K-$500K appreciation is between 3-5% and over $500K is between 1-3%.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

What is Really Happening with Home Prices?

Home values have softened over the last twelve months. We are no longer seeing 6-7% annual appreciation levels for the national housing market. The current numbers are closer to 4%. Some have suggested that year-over-year appreciation levels could fall to 3% or less this year.

However, a stronger-than-expected economy and a good spring housing market have changed some opinions. Some analysts are now predicting that home value appreciation may begin to increase as we move forward.

Here are three examples:

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist of First American

“Data on the movement of unadjusted house prices during the early spring home-buying season won’t be available for a few more months, but it’s quite likely that price appreciation will accelerate again.”

CoreLogic’s April “Home Price Insights”

“Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.7% in March 2019 compared with March 2018…The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020.”

Pulsenomics’ Quarterly “Home Price Expectation Survey”

  • The 2018 4th Quarter survey called for 3.8% appreciation for 2019.
  • The 2019 1st Quarter survey raised the appreciation projection for this year to 4.3%.

Bottom Line

Price appreciation has slowed over the past year. However, a strong economy and a good housing market have many experts thinking that home values might re-accelerate moderately throughout the rest of this year.

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

Things To Do June 2019

Free Fishing Day June 2, 2019

Arizona’s Free Fishing Day will be celebrated on June 2 this year as part of National Fishing and Boating Week, which runs June 2-10. During that Saturday only, no fishing licenses are required for persons fishing any public waters in AZ.

azgfd.com

Flashlight Tours

Jun 1, 2019 – Aug 31, 2019

At Desert Botanical Garden, summer nights shine with flashlight tours. All ages will have a blast getting hands-on during this self-guided nocturnal adventure through the garden. Plus grab some food and drink and chill out.

dbg.org/events

Hot Rod Night at Westgate

June 5, 2019

Visitors can enjoy a classic car show, live music, and special deals at nearby restaurants and bars. Admission is free.

westgatecitycenter.com/bikenight

SMoCA Summer Opening Party

Jun 7, 2019

Spend your warm summer evening in the cool galleries, chatting with curators, mingling with artists, interacting with art and exploring the exhibitions. This event will include a cash bar.

smoca.org/event/summer-opening-party-2019/

Mighty Mud Mania

June 8, 2019

Activities for all ages. The younger group can enjoy the mini mud course, mini waterslide, mud pit, sandcastle building, and an area dubbed “Mudville.” Older children can try the original mud obstacle course, sandcastle building,

and mud pits. Adults can get muddy, too, in the Extreme Mud Course.

scottsdaleaz.gov/mighty-mud-mania

Prowl & Play: Superheroes Unite!

June 9

Featuring fantastic waterslides and water features, character meet and greets with your favorite superheroes, a DJ dance party, Boom! Bam! Pow! agility training, animal discoveries and more.

phoenixzoo.org/event-items/prowl-play-kids-street-fest/

Lasers & Liquor: Beyoncé and Queen

Jun 13, 2019

Fall Crazy In Love with our state-of-the-art laser system with 14 mind-blowing special effects. Let the high-tech, multicolored laser light show on the Dorrance Planetarium dome rock you. And, practice those scales because karaoke starts on the dome at 6:30 p.m. Grab an adult beverage and get ready to be entertained.

azscience.org/lasers-and-liquor-june-2019/

Snacky Snacks: Games and Snack Fest

Jun 14, 2019

Enjoy a variety of snacks across different cuisines from over eight local businesses. We will have traditional games such as giant Jenga and tabletop board games. To top it off, we will be hosting a Super Smash Bros Ultimate video game tournament! The snack festival will be held indoors in the Fellowship Center at North Phoenix Baptist Church. This is the perfect family friendly, summer time activity to escape the heat!

facebook.com/events/757835851253679/

Bloomin’ Beerfest

Jun 15, 2019

Join the Irish Cultural Center and McClelland Library for craft beer tastings, live music, a costume contest and more.

azirish.org/bloomsday/

Miss Arizona Pageant

June 20–22, 2019

You can see some of the brightest and most talented young ladies in the state compete for the Miss Arizona and Miss Arizona Outstanding Teen crown. The Miss Arizona winner will get to represent the state at the Miss America Pageant. The event takes place at the Mesa Arts Center.

missarizona.org

Grand Canyon Centennial Summerfest and Star Party

Jun 22, 2019 – Jun 29, 2019

During the day, the centennial summerfest will bring together park partners to showcase everything Arizona has to offer. At night, park visitors can explore the wonders of the night sky at the star party. Amateur astronomers from across the country volunteer their expertise and offer free nightly astronomy programs and telescope viewing. 

nps.gov/grca/planyourvisit/grand-canyon-star-party.html

Four Peaks Brewing Company’s 8th Street Brewery tour

Through Dec 28, 2019

Join us every Saturday for complimentary tours of the 8th Street brewery. Each tour, led by an experienced Four Peaks guide, offers insight into our operations, showcases our history and gives an in-depth overview of the brewing process. Tours will also cover aspects of our laboratory testing, water treatment, barrel-aging program and more.

brewcruizer.com/event/four-peaks-8th-street-brewery-tours.html

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.

3 Graphs that Show What You Need to Know About Today’s Real Estate Market

The Housing Market has been a hot-topic in the news lately. Depending on which media outlet you watch, it can start to be a bit confusing to understand what’s really going on with interest rates and home prices!

The best way to show what’s really going on in today’s real estate market is to go straight to the data! We put together the following three graphs along with a quote from Chief Economists that have their finger on the pulse of what each graph illustrates. The lyons estate experts is who one should call when it comes to real estate deals.

Interest Rates:

“The real estate market is thawing in response to the sustained decline in mortgage rates and rebound in consumer confidence – two of the most important drivers of home sales. Rising sales demand coupled with more inventory than previous spring seasons suggests that the housing market is in the early stages of regaining momentum.” – Sam Khater, Chief Economistat Freddie Mac

Income:

“A powerful combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, rising income and higher consumer confidence is driving the sales rebound.” – Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR

Home Prices:

“Price growth has been too strong for several years, fueled in part by abnormally low interest rates. A mild deceleration in home sales and Home Price Index growth is actually healthy, because it will calm excessive price growth — which has pushed many markets, particularly in the West, into overvalued territory.” – Ralph DeFranco, Global Chief Economist at Arch Capital Services Inc.

Bottom Line

These three graphs indicate good news for the spring housing market! Interest rates are low, income is rising, and home prices have experienced mild deceleration over the last 9 months. If you are considering buying a home or selling your house, let’s get together to chat about our market!

If you’re interested in purchasing or selling a home you can start by Contacting Us directly or start searching for your new home here Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale or Surprise.